How Trump’s Tariffs Impact Australia: Insights from UNSW Business School

As Trump’s tariffs take effect, UNSW Business School’s Dr Scott French examines the impact on Australia and why policy responses should not include protective tariffs of our own.

US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, 25% on all US steel and aluminium imports, which will affect global trade, are here. While Australian companies can implement short-term strategies, there are steps policymakers can take to minimise supply chain risks and broader economic impacts.

With Australia failing to get an exemption, what do policymakers need to know about this latest trade policy development? Dr Scott French, a Senior Lecturer in the School of Economics at UNSW Business School, says policymakers must carefully consider their response. 

While the impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy is expected to be negative, Dr French warns against reactionary protectionist policies that could have long-term consequences for Australia’s economy. Instead, he advocates for temporary, targeted support measures to cushion the immediate impact while recognising opportunities for trade diversification in the Indo-Pacific region. 

“Maintaining competitiveness and strategic adaptability will be key to navigating these challenges as the global trade landscape shifts,” he says.

The negative impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy

President Trump has implemented a 25% tariff on all US steel and aluminium imports, effective today. This tariff eliminates all previous exemptions for free trade, including those for Australia.

Additionally, the US has imposed new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, citing a “national emergency” under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). These measures aimed to address perceived threats to national security, such as the flow of fentanyl through US imports and protect American industries from unfair competition. 

Concerns have been raised about higher consumer prices, disruptions to global supply chains, and far-reaching effects on global economic and geopolitical stability.

Dr French says the Trump administration’s new tariffs will significantly affect markets for the inputs that businesses need to produce goods and services. While the tariffs will directly affect Australian metal producers, they will indirectly impact Australian miners, who produce the raw materials used in metals manufacturing, among others.

“But due to the complexity of global supply chains, it's hard to predict precisely where the impact will be greatest, but the overall effect is going to be negative,” he says.

While about 15% of Australian aluminium and steel exports go to the US, he says the broader effects of the tariffs on the global market could prove to be more consequential for Australian producers.

“In terms of exports, aluminium and steel are only a fraction of the size of Australian mining sector,” Dr French explains. “So, if you’re looking at Australia as a whole, the direct effect on miners is smaller. But it’s a bigger overall sector, so when you multiply that out it’s probably the bigger of the two impacts for Australia overall.”

He adds that the tariffs will also affect the Chinese economy negatively. “China is such a big importer of iron ore and other minerals, that anytime the Chinese economy slows down, demand for these things also goes down,” he says.

“And I expect the tariffs to reduce overall demand for steel and aluminium because they’re going to get more expensive for US manufacturers. 

“And so all the manufactured goods that the US is making that use these as inputs, their costs have gone up, so they’re going to look to substitute away from those in whatever way they can, whether it’s using alternative materials or just shifting overall demand from steel and aluminium-intensive manufactured goods toward other things.”

Australian manufacturing must remain competitive in global markets

Dr French says there is a risk the tariffs will lead to an influx of foreign products to Australia, which could displace local manufacturing.

In addition to the US tariffs, China, Canada and Mexico are gradually implementing retaliatory tariffs on American goods. These reciprocal tariffs are expected to negatively impact bilateral trade between these countries and the US while increasing trade between these countries and their other trading partners, which economists call trade diversion.

But Dr French suggests policymakers should avoid the temptation to protect Australian manufacturers from foreign competition. “Maintaining competitiveness is important because the one thing I've seen coming out of the industry is they're worried about foreign products flooding the Australian market and displacing the domestic manufacturing here,” he says.

“I can already feel the push for protective tariffs to keep out foreign products competing with domestic production. I’m very, very wary of something like that because I find that Australia has done well by having very low trade barriers. And we don't want to go back to the experience from earlier decades where local manufacturing was very highly protected and very uncompetitive.

“So that's why I think maintaining competitiveness is important, and I would strongly caution against trying to enact any sort of protective tariffs to isolate the domestic market for these products.”

Source: UNSW. Read the full insights.